Rachel Medina and I receiving the 2022 YAR Affiliates of the Year from Don Sharp
I’m grateful to my friends at the Yolo Association of Realtors for naming me, along with Rachel Medina, the 2022 Affiliates of the Year for the association. Sharing this with Rachel, on the same night my friends and colleagues Don Sharp and Francisco Jimenez were named 20222 Realtors of the Year, made the recognition special.
I spent much of last year in presentations sharing photos of my favorite mountains since the local markets had clearly peaked. Here’s hoping I can share valley photos in 2023….
Here’s hoping I can retire peaks from my market presentations and start sharing valleys
For my appraiser friends: will this pass an FHA inspection? image copywrite Joe Lynch
Hey, it’s been a while. Since the start of the pandemic, demand for appraisal services has gone through the roof, limiting my ability to write. Thank you if you’ve sent me work. That said, I hope to write more frequently in 2022. This is the start.
Market Analysis Ground Rules
Below are market updates for Davis, Woodland, and the Northern Yolo County small acreage residential markets. My data source is Metrolist, the MLS for my region and part of the Norcal MLS Alliance. I’m very fortunate to have such great data partners.
For suburban markets like Davis and Woodland, I limit the analysis to sales of single family residences on one lot. I exclude condominiums, townhouses, halfplexes, and small income residential properties (2-4 units) because these types of transactions in general add noise to the analysis in markets I cover. For small acreage residential properties, I include one house on a lot, two houses on a lot, manufactured homes, and modular homes outside of city limits. I usually narrow the lot size range of transactions included in the analysis. For example, the analysis below is limited to sales on lots with 1-60 acres of area.
Davis
Sales volume in Davis was significantly higher year-over-year in early 2021 because of lockdowns in 2020 but over the past six months are down year-over-year because of the surge in late 2020.
Davis 12 Month Change in Sales Volume
My favorite way to measure sale price trends in Davis is to look at monthly year-over-year metrics because of the high degree of seasonality in the Davis market. Look at the graph below. The past six months prices are up on average 20% overall in Davis. Pre-pandemic, prices were stable to declining slightly…
Davis residential real estate prices have increased rapidly over the past year
Woodland
Sales volume in Woodland has been distorted by Covid, too. Volume in early 2021 increased significantly over the prior year but were below 2020 over the summer of 2021 and are mixed most recently.
Woodland year-over-year change in monthly sales volume distorted by the pandemic
Woodland is a much less seasonal market than Davis so I use a sale price or sale price per square foot scatter graph model to show market trends. Prices have continued to rise in Woodland significantly over the past 12 months.
Woodland prices continue to increase strongly
Davis and Woodland Recent Activity
as of February 16, 2022
Prices continue to show strong appreciation. The key issue is the lack of inventory. Normally, Davis and Woodland have 50-100 single family homes listed for sale. Lack of inventory is driving competition and prices.
Another sign of lack of inventory
Competition is frantic in Davis now with the vast majority of homes receiving multiple offers. Woodland homes are receiving multiple offers at a higher than typical rate, too, but not at Davis levels. Great time to sell, terrible time to buy.
Cash Buyers in the Market
Another heat check
With most listings receiving multiple offers, I’m not surprised to see a rising percentage of all-cash buyers.
These trends are telling the same story.
Northern Yolo County Small Acreage Residential Market
As noted above, I analyzed sales of properties on 1-60 acres sold in unincorporated Yolo County. I excluded Dunnigan because it is a different market from the rest of the county with 1 acre lots next to the interstate and many manufactured homes adding noise to the analysis.
Northern Yolo County Small Acreage Residential
With so few transactions, best way to understand the market is by sales per date scatter graph. First shows all sales from the start of 2020:
Sale scatter graph showing increasing prices
Longer view:
Sale scatter graph since 1/1/10
Those familiar with this market will be able to explain the price bump in 2016 and subsequent flattening. In early 2016, Yolo County changed the code to allow for medical marijuana grows on small acreage lots. This led to a rush in outside investors competing for small acreage residential properties and rapid price increases. When Yolo County put a clamp on new permits, prices stabilized and were relatively flat heading into the pandemic. The overall lack of inventory and desire for separation from neighbors led to a return of price increases.
The Elephant in the Room
image copywrite Pixabay, free to use
The Covid pandemic surprised many of us by leading to rapid price increases driven by low inventory and historically low interest rates. Low inventory is still here but interest rates are rising rapidly:
Thanks Len.
If trends continue, at some point rising interest rates will reduce affordability enough to reduce sales activity and prices. Here’s hoping for a soft landing.
Brownie points to anyone who was not on the Yolo County Association of Realtors call last week who can tell where this is:
Small acreage residential (but not Yolo County) image copywrite Joe Lynch
I hope you’ve had your Covid-19 vaccine shots. If not and you’re in California, sign up now here.
Inventory continues to be low in the region with rising prices and competition for most properties. Sales volume is rising as shown below for Davis and Woodland:
Activity is up in Davis from the previous 12 monthsWoodland sales volume continues to increase
Inventory has risen in Davis but is still on the low side. Woodland continues to run significantly below normal.
Prices overall are increasing rapidly in Woodland and moderately in Davis. Keep in mind that specific market segments may be trending differently depending upon demand.
Includes only single family homes in Davis city limits sold through MetrolistWoodland sales reported to Metrolist in city limits of single family homes only
Multiple Offers
Everyone is talking about competing against 15 offers and prices 30% over initial list. Davis and Woodland are competitive, but not that competitive, as shown below.
Mean number of offers received trending up in Davis. Source: MetrolistWoodland showing a significant increase in offers received
Arbuckle Market Trends
Arbuckle is an unincorporated community of approximately 5,000 people located about 45 minutes northwest of Sacramento along Interstate Highway 5 in Colusa County. It features homes built in the 1940-50s plus newer subdivisions built over the past 20 years and is surrounded by farmland.
Inventory is very low, not that unusual given how small the Arbuckle market is. Sales volume in 2020 was down 10% from 2019, not unusual for the area. Prices have increased significantly over the past 12 months as shown below.
Rapid price increases in Arbuckle during the pandemic per Metrolist
A longer look shows the effect of the pandemic on pricing:
Prices were stable heading into the pandemic but increased as most markets I cover did over the past 12 monthsArbuckle, CA is surrounded by farmland and split by I-5
Of the 37 homes sold in Arbuckle since 1/1/20 in Metrolist, 17 had one offer and 20 had more than one with a peak of 17 offers for one property. Competition has picked up in Arbuckle, following trends throughout the area.
Every day I receive calls and offers from lenders, agents, and buyers hoping I can help them with a purchase appraisal. I’m very fortunate to be busy and can’t finish anything quickly now because of my workload. I strongly suggest everyone to be patient if an appraisal is part of your transaction. This graph below from Freddie Mac will help explain the situation.
Appraisal volume ties directly to interest rates. When rates fall, mortgage financing rises and drives appraisal volume up. When rates rise, appraisal volume falls. However, as shown above, the number of appraisers in the US who work with lenders has been relatively stable over the past eight years. The interest rate cycle rises and falls much more rapidly than the time it takes to develop a productive appraiser, causing appraiser shortages in times like now.
The pandemic has changed all of our lives in the past year. In local real estate, activity paused in March and April as shelter-in-place orders took effect. The Fed dropped interest rates to zero, pushing mortgage rates to historic lows. Homes became more affordable but inventory (the amount of time to sell the current number of active listings in a market) tightened because people didn’t want strangers walking through their homes during a pandemic. Low rates combined with low inventory has supercharged the local residential market.
Davis and Woodland have very few homes for sale at present with multiple offers received on most listings. The lack of inventory, very low interest rates, and lots of competition are pushing prices up as shown on the graphs below.
Davis has relatively few sales in January and March so take the 26% price increase with a grain of salt-that number is likely influenced by a change in what sold, potentially a compositional effect. I wrote about compositional effects recently.
Woodland prices have increased relatively rapidly during the pandemic on a price per square foot basis but have leveled off on a sale price basis.
Because of seasonality, I look at 12 month change in prices for Davis. Prices have increased the past 5 months compared to the previous year. Davis is a clearly appreciating market at present.
Much of my work is in unincorporated Yolo County appraising small acreage residential properties. The graph below shows a significant upward trend in these types of properties. Once again, part of the increase can be attributed to a compositional effect: the average size of homes and lots have increased, pushing up the sale price trendline somewhat. That said, prices are still increasing in this market.
Inventory was 2.5 months when I compiled this graph at the beginning of the month, shockingly low. I have not seen this market with less than 5 months of inventory in the past 10 years. Buyer preferences have shifted to having more space away from neighbors.
Six months after the Covid-19 stay-at-home order hit Yolo County, what’s happened to residential real estate in local markets?
Sales activity in Davis was low at the start of 2020 before the pandemic hit and continued into the spring with a massive drop in May. As shown below, Davis is way behind in sales compared to last year but we may make up ground in the fall.
2020 vs. 2019 single family residential sales in Davis per Metrolist12 Month change in Davis single family residential sales per Metrolist
In contrast, Woodland started 2020 with strong year-over-year sales activity, putting on the brakes in April and May. Some of the missing activity shifted into the summer but Woodland is still behind last year’s numbers.
Woodland closed sales 2020 vs. 2019 per Metrolist12 Month change in Woodland single family residential sales per Metrolist
While demand (sales) fell over the past six months, supply fell even further in both Davis and Woodland. We have seen an increase this summer in homes listed in Davis, hopefully a sign of the traditional summer market spilling into the fall.
Davis single family residential new listings per Metrolist.
Woodland saw a sharp drop in new listings in April and May and is continuing to track lower.
Woodland new single family residential listings per Metrolist
Net effect on both Davis and Woodland is a supply imbalance leading to rising prices. Davis is showing year-over-year increases in five of the past six months.
Prices have increased on a year-over-year basis in five of the past six months in Davis per Metrolist
Woodland prices are rising too as shown on the scatter graph of all sales below.
The Woodland SFR market has increased over the past 12 months per Metrolist
Below is a quick summary of both markets:
The standout statistic above is the incredibly low inventory in Woodland.
Winters is a much smaller market than Davis or Woodland. As the graph below shows, sales are increasing at present. Also note the lack of sales in April and May in Winters, similar to other Yolo County markets.
Prices have increased in Winters over the past 12 months too
Takeaways for Davis and Woodland
Sales volume is down
Inventory has declined more leading to a supply imbalance
Prices are increasing
Pay Attention To
Interest rates. The historically low rates are jet fuel for the residential market. When rates go up, pay attention
The local economy. We’re still in a recession with massive job losses and a large percentage of mortgage forbearances. So far, impacts to local housing have been minimal but that may change in a hurry
Monthly year-over-year change in homes sold, mean sale price, and mean psf for homes sold in Davis, CA
As I type this, the 100,000th person in the US has died from the novel coronavirus 2019. The country has shut down to bend the curve. Shelter in place started in Yolo County on March 19, forcing most people to stay home. Unemployment exploded nationwide, going from 3% to nearly 20% in a month while mortgage forbearance levels jumped to 2008 levels. How has the economic crash affected residential real estate in Davis and Woodland?
Shelter in place stopped in-person interior inspections for buyers and real estate agents while the stock market crash and jump in unemployment shook consumer confidence. However, interest rates dropped into the low 3s, increasing affordability.
Davis monthly sales 2019 to 2020
The graph above shows all single family residences sold in Davis by month for 2019 and 2020. Year-over-year change in January, February, and March was somewhat negative, indicative of a slowing market. April 2020 was lower still and probably represents sales that went into contract before or at the beginning of the shut down. May sales are probably the first period to reflect the post-shut down period. I was so surprised at how few sales in May to date that I ran the search multiple times to make sure I wasn’t making a mistake….
The Davis residential market ground to a halt. Current listing volume is still low but homes in contract is starting to recover (35 in contract in May 2020 to date compared to 41 in 2019). Prices have held up surprisingly well on a year-over-year, price per square foot basis as shown below.
Davis prices have held up surprisingly well
After a period of decline in the fall, prices shifted to stable to slightly increasing. Early days and less reliable than typical because of the sales volume decline.
Woodland, in contrast, was poised for a strong 2020 before the pandemic. Sales volume was up 38% in January and 25% in February from 2019. March sales this year slowed to the 2019 rate and declined steeply in April and May to date.
Woodland sales stated 2020 strong but declined as the pandemic hit
Sales volume declined sooner in Woodland but not as steeply as Davis. Once again, prices in Woodland have been relatively stable overall. Homes currently in contract are low and point to continued sales volume decline in at least the short run.
Woodland prices have been relatively stable in 2020
We’ve seen a significant slowdown in activity that has yet to affect prices significantly. Inventory is slightly higher but not yet affecting prices. Historically low interest rates have certainly helped prop up the market. Buyers and agents have adjusted their protocols to stay healthy while shopping for homes.
I’m concerned at the trickle of sales in Davis. Davis is a really hard place to value properties because of differences in location and the high degree of seasonality from the university. Reduce sales volume significantly and sales comparison is going to be difficult. Here’s hoping my Davis Realtor friends have a busy quarter…..
