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Davis, Woodland, and Arbuckle Market Update for April and a quick discussion of appraiser shortages

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I hope you’ve had your Covid-19 vaccine shots. If not and you’re in California, sign up now here.

Inventory continues to be low in the region with rising prices and competition for most properties. Sales volume is rising as shown below for Davis and Woodland:

Activity is up in Davis from the previous 12 months
Woodland sales volume continues to increase

Inventory has risen in Davis but is still on the low side. Woodland continues to run significantly below normal.

Prices overall are increasing rapidly in Woodland and moderately in Davis. Keep in mind that specific market segments may be trending differently depending upon demand.

Includes only single family homes in Davis city limits sold through Metrolist
Woodland sales reported to Metrolist in city limits of single family homes only

Multiple Offers

Everyone is talking about competing against 15 offers and prices 30% over initial list. Davis and Woodland are competitive, but not that competitive, as shown below.

Mean number of offers received trending up in Davis. Source: Metrolist
Woodland showing a significant increase in offers received

Arbuckle Market Trends

Arbuckle is an unincorporated community of approximately 5,000 people located about 45 minutes northwest of Sacramento along Interstate Highway 5 in Colusa County. It features homes built in the 1940-50s plus newer subdivisions built over the past 20 years and is surrounded by farmland.

Inventory is very low, not that unusual given how small the Arbuckle market is. Sales volume in 2020 was down 10% from 2019, not unusual for the area. Prices have increased significantly over the past 12 months as shown below.

Rapid price increases in Arbuckle during the pandemic per Metrolist

A longer look shows the effect of the pandemic on pricing:

Prices were stable heading into the pandemic but increased as most markets I cover did over the past 12 months
Arbuckle, CA is surrounded by farmland and split by I-5

Of the 37 homes sold in Arbuckle since 1/1/20 in Metrolist, 17 had one offer and 20 had more than one with a peak of 17 offers for one property. Competition has picked up in Arbuckle, following trends throughout the area.

Every day I receive calls and offers from lenders, agents, and buyers hoping I can help them with a purchase appraisal. I’m very fortunate to be busy and can’t finish anything quickly now because of my workload. I strongly suggest everyone to be patient if an appraisal is part of your transaction. This graph below from Freddie Mac will help explain the situation.

Source: The Effect of COVID-19 on Appraisal Volume – Freddie Mac Single-Family

Appraisal volume ties directly to interest rates. When rates fall, mortgage financing rises and drives appraisal volume up. When rates rise, appraisal volume falls. However, as shown above, the number of appraisers in the US who work with lenders has been relatively stable over the past eight years. The interest rate cycle rises and falls much more rapidly than the time it takes to develop a productive appraiser, causing appraiser shortages in times like now.

Good luck.