This update is based on a presentation at the Northern Solano County Association of Realtors on April 25. I pulled the data on April 24 from Metrolist/BAREIS.
The key story in residential real estate over the past 18 months has been the rapid rise in interest rates in early 2023. Here’s the picture:
Interest rates 12 months ago were below 4% and are now above 6%, significantly reducing affordability for buyers and buyer demand overall. Sellers locked into low rates have strong motivation to stay in their homes, reducing supply. In Northern California, many markets have reached a new equilibrium of significantly fewer buyers, sellers, and transactions.
Below is a summary for Northern Solano County.
Dixon, Fairfield, Suisun City, and Vacaville are properties reported in Metrolist/BAREIS on less than one acre and reported to be single family residences. Northern Acreage are properties located in unincorporated Solano County with Dixon, Vacaville, and Winters mailing addresses on 1-60 acres and include single family residences, two homes on one lot, manufactured homes, and modular homes. Note that there were 0 sales of acreage properties last month but 3 the month before, low but not unheard of.
Listings are less than homes in contract for the cities, indicative of a stronger market. Sales volume for all five markets are less than March, 2018, and March, 2019 sales volumes.
12 Month Change in sale price is a common metric in residential real estate. All five markets are trending lower than 2022, as expected based on the larger market trends. However, focusing on 12 Month Change can miss when a market changes direction.
Below are scatter plots showing trends in each market area:
The four Northern Solano cities show similar trends. Prices peaked in the spring of 2022, declined for the rest of the year, and hit bottom in late 2022/early 2023. Prices are now relatively stable.
In contrast, take a look at the Northern Solano small acreage residential market:
Prices peaked later, in the summer, and declined since. This is a declining market at present. Note that the Northern Solano County small acreage residential market has more uncertainty because of fewer sales and significant differences in property characteristics.
Prices appear to have bottomed out, at least temporarily, in Northern Solano County communities with the exception of small acreage residential properties. Low demand is matching low supply with a new, maybe temporary equilibrium.
This simple analysis shows trends for all homes sold in each market. Each market is made up of a collection of individual submarkets that can trend in different directions. For example, I recently appraised two homes in Woodland with the only real difference between the two was one was 2000 sf and the other was 2800 sf. The 2000 sf home’s submarket was declining like the overall market but the 2800 sf home’s submarket was increasing. Each home requires its own analysis to determine trends and value.
I hope to write more this year. If you have something you would like me to discuss here, please leave a message or email me.