Monthly Archives: June 2024

Happy Father’s Day! Yolo County Market Update for May, 2024

Happy Father’s Day to all the dads in the room! Here’s a picture of my dad on our favorite trail.

We’ve been going back to this place for more than 40 years

Yolo County Market Trends

Interest rates continue to weigh heavily on residential real estate in the US. All the experts, including the Fed, agree that we should not expect to see more than one interest rate drop this year.

Last month, interest rates were at 7.09% for a 30-year fixed rate. The latest survey has dropped to 6.99%. At least the direction is helpful….

Let’s hope the trend continues!

Once again, here’s Len Kiefer‘s affordability chart, showing the impact of rising interest rates on affordability.

The vertical scale shows loan amount while the horizontal scale shows interest rates. The blue lines show the payment for a given loan amount and interest rate combination. In 2021, the average loan amount of approximately $400,000 meant a monthly payment of about $1,900 per month. The 2024 average loan amount, approximately $475,000, requires a monthly payment of about $3,100, a 63% increase. Just as bad as last month!

We’re still in high interest rate environment with significantly reduced purchasing power from two years ago, reducing demand. At the same time, because so many homeowners locked in rates at 3% or lower, supply continues to sit below pre-pandemic levels.

Yolo County Data

Below is a breakdown of sales in 2024 by community for residential sales on 60 acre or less lots, excluding condominiums, townhouses, and halfplexes. Note that small acreage residential sales are included in this snapshot. All data from Metrolist MLS.

Yolo County Sales summary by community

Very few sales in the Capay Valley and Clarksburg area so far this year. The overall reduction in sales has a significant negative impact on the ability of appraisers, and everyone else, to figure out market trends and market value for individual properties, especially for anything unusual.

Monthly sales volume for all homes sold in Yolo County since 2016 per Metrolist. The trend is not your friend for those of us working in Yolo County residential real estate

Below shows the growth in mean sale price for Yolo County since 2016. Prices have increased significantly over the past eight years and are now at a series high (on a nominal basis).

Let’s see how the market has reacted since the rise in interest rates in early 2022.

Yolo County prices have bounced around since the start of 2022

Prices peaked in early 2022 and declined the rest of the year as the market digested the massive change in affordability. Prices recovered somewhat in early 2023 and have tended towards stability since. However, prices ticked up with the latest data and are now at a series high.

Inventory fell to historically low levels during the pandemic and rose in reaction to the interest rate increase in early 2022 but still sit well below pre-pandemic levels at present.

Yolo County SFR inventory trends with current inventory still below pre-pandemic levels

Monthly mean days on market continue to be slightly elevated from pre-pandemic numbers.

Another measure of market strength is the sale price to list price ratio, or how much the sale price of a home changes from the reported list price. A ratio is greater than 100% shows prices getting bid up while under 100% shows sellers forced to discount.

Watch this graph as a leading indicator of market change

On average, buyers are paying slightly more than the initial list price in Yolo County at present, a sign of market strength.

Yolo County Summary

May 2024May 2023Change
Active Listings211146 46%
Inventory1.6 Months1.0 Months 60%
Sales129144-10%
Mean Sale Price$785,931$713,085 10%
Mean PSF$401$3698.7%
Sale Price/List Price Ratio102.09%101.12%0.9%
Mean Days on Market26 Days29 Days-10%
Mean Number of Offers2.82.8 0%

For Yolo County year-over-year, listings are up, inventory increased significantly, sales volume declined, and prices are up year-over-year. Prices increased but the slowdown in sales and resulting increase in inventory bears watching.

Davis and Woodland

This analysis only includes sales of homes on less than one acre of properties labeled as “single family residences” in Metrolist, the local MLS. The same rules apply to the West Sacramento analysis below.

Sales volume has drifted downwards for both Davis and Woodland.

Declining sales is the clear trend for Davis
Sales volume trending down in Woodland

Number of offers on average for Davis and Woodland are trending up and are above pre-pandemic numbers.

More competition for listings in Davis
Competition for listings is rising in Woodland too

Davis and Woodland Summary

DavisWoodland
Active Listings as of June 113757
Sales Last Month4042
Inventory0.9 Months1.4 Months
Mean Sale Price May 2024$1,186,480$580,940
12 Month Change
Mean Sale Price
Mean PSF

20.1%
12.9%

-1.6%
6.5%
Sale Price/List Price Ratio104.11%100.19%
Mean Days on Market May 20241817

The summary table above captures a point in time. Below are scatter graphs of all homes sold in Davis and Woodland since 1/1/23.

Davis is showing the typical seasonality we’ve seen prior to the pandemic, tracking the university schedule. Prices in May, 2024 jumped significantly higher than prices in May, 2023.

On a price per square foot basis, Woodland has shifted into an increasing market

On a price per square foot basis, Woodland has shifted to increasing but stable to increasing on a sale price basis.

On a sale price basis, prices appear relatively stable to increasing. One to watch

Davis inventory remains low with increasing and elevated prices. Woodland inventory has climbed but is still somewhat low by pre-pandemic standards. Price trends in Woodland are somewhat uncertain, with prices increasing on a price per square foot basis but stable to increasing on a sale price basis. If inventory continues to rise in Woodland, expect prices to stabilize or shift to declining.

West Sacramento

Sales volume is down in West Sacramento as shown below.

West Sacramento declining sales volume

Offers received per sale in West Sacramento are below the pandemic era but above 2018 and 2019.

West Sacramento number of offers remains above pre-pandemic levels

West Sacramento Summary

Active Listings as of June 1170
Sales Last Month38
Inventory1.8 Months
Mean Sale Price May 2024$645,194
12 Month Change
Mean Sale Price
Mean PSF
2.9%
0%
Sale Price/List Price Ratio101.03%
Mean Days on Market April 202429

Inventory increased significantly in May while prices ticked up as shown on the graph below. The scatter graph is the best way to measure most markets. I’ll have more to say about tracking market changes in the near future.

West Sacramento prices are increasing in 2024

Summary

The overwhelming factor in local housing prices at present is affordability, or the lack of it. Interest rates persist at a high level, dramatically reducing affordability, reducing demand, and even reducing supply with low interest rates lock-in prevalent. Lack of demand and lack of supply continue to shrink the number of homes sold with large impacts on both agents and appraisers.

That said, those who are buying are paying increasing prices as demand appears higher than supply at present in Yolo County and especially Davis.

I hope you find this useful.